Russia And Ukraine War: Russia’s war against Ukraine is Europe’s greatest military conflict since World War II, displacing 15 million people and killing thousands of civilians. Middle East is especially susceptible to the extensive repercussions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on world food prices and supplies.  The World Food Programme purchases half of its grain from Ukraine, therefore the Russian blockade has an impact on global humanitarian aid efforts. There is a greater chance of hunger in the coming months due to the severe effects of food shortages and rising prices that are being felt globally. It resulted in increasing food prices and substantial disruptions in the supply of key cereals, as well as the potential of political upheaval, migration, and acute famine.

Food insecurity in Middle East:

Iraq: Iraq is feeling the effects of the global rise in food prices brought on by the conflict in the Ukraine. Iraq imports the majority of its wheat from Australia and the United States. The Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture’s advisor, Mahdi Damad al-Qaisi, reportedly stated other nations that rely on Russia and Ukraine might now turn to the nations that import from Iraq. Because agriculture is limited, particularly in terms of wheat, the concerned authorities, must take safeguards.

Food shortages and price hikes could spark public outrage, particularly if the government doesn’t come up with effective solutions. Iraqis protested against corruption in 2019 in large-scale public gatherings that swept the nation. The nation’s ration card is still used by many destitute Iraqis to purchase essential necessities. And, when food prices rise and food shortages occur, they will become even more reliant on it. Since the government had to limit irrigation for agricultural area to preserve diminishing water supplies, its own wheat production this year has been significantly decreased.

Lebanon: Approximately 90% of the nation’s imports of wheat, cooking oil, and   grain come from Russia and Ukraine. Even before the Ukraine conflict and the horrible August 2020 Beirut port explosion, the Lebanese government considered importing wheat for the first time in six years, fearing a coronavirus epidemic would threaten the country’s food security. The explosion decreased Beirut’s port’s ability to import wheat by perhaps a fifth or even less, in addition to killing over 200 people, wounding 6,000 people, and destroying the capital. Large grain silos at the port, were completely destroyed by the explosion. 

Syria: The breadbasket of Syria, the northeast and east, has the most fertile soil. But even there, people struggle with hunger and thirst, and the villages lack staples like bread and water. The food situation is terrible in Syria. Many people are starving. They go entire days without eating.  With the economy so awful, some people lament the brutal conflict that decimated the country, saying, “at least then we had some food to eat and we could feed our children.”

The situation is critical in the northwest. In the region of Idlib, millions of displaced Syrians reside in crowded camps. Many of these Syrians depend on aid that is sent through Turkey’s Bab al-Hawa border gate. The United Nations Security Council must approve the decision to maintain that border open. There are concerns that Russia may refuse to renew the mandate to send relief. This would worsen the terrible situation in Idlib and possibly bring new conflicts.

One of the numerous elements that led to the revolution in Syria in 2011 is said to have been the rise in food prices. This rebellion launched a civil war that raged for more than a decade and claimed over 500,000 lives. Prior to the revolution, the cost of the typical food basket grew by roughly 30% while the cost of basic foods like wheat increased by 100%.

Yemen: The war between Russia and Ukraine, threatens to significantly worsen the food insecurity situation.” According to IFPRI, Yemen is significantly reliant on imports, especially wheat. It imports wheat from Russia and Ukraine.  Furthermore, the research stated that the Middle East and North African countries “reexport flour and other processed wheat products derived from Black Sea-sourced products” to Yemen.

17.4 million Yemenis still lack access to food despite continued humanitarian aid. By December 2022, that figure is anticipated to reach 19 million. Processed goods like fortified wheat flour and ready-to-use supplemental food are also in danger due to the conflict in Ukraine. According to a recent assessment by the World Food Programme, millions of people in Yemen are suffering from extreme hunger at an unprecedented level.

Egypt: The greatest importer of wheat and the country with the highest population in the Middle East is Egypt. Egypt imports an estimated 60% of its grain, with pre-war Russia and Ukraine accounting for 80% of those imports. In an effort to contain rising prices, Egypt implemented a three-month price cap for non-subsidized bread a month into the Ukraine War.

The most important food group in the Egyptian diet is bread, especially for the tens of millions of poor people who rely on bread subsidies to survive. The price of bread has been a crucial component of Egypt’s social contract, especially when it comes to bread subsidies for the underprivileged.

The Gulf:

With water-efficient agriculture, hydroponic farming, and energy-efficient desalination plants, Gulf states have been geared up for an emergency.  Following a three-year blockade aimed at strangling its economy by its neighbors, Qatar, for instance, ranked as the 24th most food-secure nation in the world last year, with other Gulf states not far behind.

Few Important points:

• The Ukrainian food and agricultural industries have been severely damaged: Ukraine has lost 20% of its arable land, and the invasion has cost the country’s agricultural industry $4.21 billion. For Ukraine, where the food and agriculture sector accounts for 10% of the GDP, this has a significant impact. Countries that depend on Ukrainian exports have also been affected significantly on a global scale.
• Egypt’s food security has been significantly impacted by the rising costs of wheat and grain: Egypt’s administration has had to deal with rapidly rising wheat prices and their effect on the country’s debt because bread is heavily subsidized in that country. The population’s food security has also been greatly impacted by the decreased availability and rising costs of corn, which is essential to the production of all proteins in Egypt.
• Russia’s illicit looting and export of Ukrainian grain has harmed food security: Illegal grain exports account for roughly 60 percent of Ukrainian agricultural output. The Ukrainian prosecutor general has asked Turkey for international legal assistance in investigating the unlawful movement of Ukrainian grain, its export, and fraudulent documents.
• Food exports to the Middle East have been significantly hampered by the Russian blockade of Ukrainian seaports: Russia has closed the ports that were the origin of 90% of Southern Ukraine’s exports to the area. Russia has built infrastructure that will allow them to mount an offensive in southern Ukraine, a bread basket for many impoverished countries throughout the world.
• The effects of the world war, starvation, drought, and harsh weather combine to make the Middle East’s food problem worse: The war in Ukraine will have catastrophic implications on global human security if it continues into the next year.